I thought about titling this post 'Never Do This!', but then didn't agree- since I did it and it worked (I've made it work in the past, but have also gotten burnt by it). What am I talking about, you ask? Averaging down. Basically, I'm referring to adding to a position that either A. You're uncomfortable with, or B. Isn't acting how you originally thought it would. You can either average down in equal quantities (ie. short 10 shares at $45, another 10 at $35, etc.), or try to really bring your average share price down by adding even more to a losing position (ie. short 10 shares at $45, 20 at $35, etc.) The latter illustration can get you in trouble faster than you can say, "Margin Call".
To better illustrate my point, I'll use a real life situation you may be aware of: My recent position(s) in FAZ. After it fell from it's grace around $115, and raced toward support around $40, I felt the urge to buy 15 shares (when it was $45). No biggie- "It'll be 60 in a day or so". Well it broke support of $40, so I decided to average down and buy 10 more shares at $35. "Surely it's going back up to $40 where I can almost break even". Nope- yesterday it just kept on tanking, kicking my sorry 25 shares all the way to $26. I watched the futures like a hawk last night and again when I woke up at 5am this morning for work- they showed the DOW being down about 40 pts. I was a bit relieved, knowing that FAZ should begin the day up (being the short-minded etf it is). Well, when I texted my Mom around 9:30 am, she told me it was 24.48. I wanted in! Again. I decided to buy 50 shares under $25. My order was filled at $24.28.
I don't condone this sort of trading (averaging down) for three reasons:
- It ties up your capital, making it difficult to trade when a better setup presents itself.
- You're bucking the trend, hoping your contrarian idea is perfectly timed.
- These trades can potentially wipe out gains made in many smaller profitable ones.
With that being said, here's three reasons why I decided to average down with FAZ:
- The rally we've had in financials can't go up forever.
- Tomorrow is options expiration day (many will be taking profits).
- FAZ is extremely volatile, and $29 wouldn't be that difficult when combining #1 and #2.
I picked $29 because it would make all my recent trades with FAZ profitable (even with commissions). When it couldn't quite hit $29 a couple times, I decided (with some sound advice from my brother-in-law) to lower the target to $28.75. Got it before noon. I'd post a chart, but you obviously don't need one if you've read this far.
In other news, I covered 100 shares of my PALM short AH when it fell to $7.30 after a dismal earnings report. I'm hoping to cover the remaining 150 shares in the very near future. That will put the account pretty much in cash- right where I want to be for the next perfect setup. Let me say it again so I can remember... Perfect setup.
Evan
2 comments:
I wouldn't avg down on anything but my baby FAZ.
And under 30 let alone 25 that it hit,imo was a gift.
Yes,it's after the fact,but I told anyone that asked me at the time,grab some at 25 cause it's a given.
Let me get this straight:
1. Muddy commented on my post.
2. He not only agrees with my trade, but was telling others to buy under $25!
3. My Covestor chart is a confirmed breakout.
Have I died and gone to Trader Heaven?
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