Thursday, March 12, 2009

F.S.T. (FAZ Support Test)

Yeah- I want to be like Muddy, who traded FAZ profitably like 53 out of 54 trades last week. I've had 3 successful trades with FAZ so far, and am now looking for my fourth. Below is the 'have-to-see-it-to-believe-it' 3 month chart of FAZ:

I realize this may be catching a falling knife (I am certainly trying to here- bought 15 shares @ 45.75). This is a pretty relentless freefall from 100+. Here are 4 reasons (2 valid, 2 ridiculous) why I think FAZ will see 50+ in the next week (and possibly tomorrow).

1. This market's volatility

2. Support level in place around $40ish

3. Fridays make for great profit taking days- especially after a week like this one!

4. Second Friday the 13th month in a row? C'mon, that's gotta bring some selling to the table:)

Is there a method to your madness?

Evan

3 comments:

Charlie G. said...

There is crazy support down in this area for FAZ. The beauty of buying only 15 shares means you could stand a $10 price drop and still only have a $150 loss, but if it shoots up over $100 again, you could gain $825.

In hindsight, you may have bought a little early given the strength of the financials and overall market on Thursday (I tried shorting KEY that day so what do I know?).

The lowest ever was $32. Even if this is a bottom for the market (and it seems like most traders don't think it is) - FAZ will have a healthy pullup - it's bounces can be $20 - so even a corrective pop up from $30 would still help you break even.

Since you were smart with a small position and the BANKS in this country are still on thin ice, I think there is a very good chance this will work out.

One bit of bad financial news in the financial sector and we could be back to $60 in a day.

Aynul said...

I'm also participating in the F.S.T. I'm in at 39.5.

Let's cross our fingers, but we should be okay, IMO nothing has fundamentally changed in the economy to warrant an end to the bear market. And like Charlie said, any bad news should give us a decent profit.

Good luck man

islandminister said...

Thanks for the comments guys! I agree with your agreements:) Hope it works out for you too, Aynul! Charlie- how's the little affecting your trading and sleeping habits?

PALM's really becoming a question mark. I don't see how the Pre will take enough market share from the iPhone to justify the millions they're spending to pump it, and from what I've read- big dillution is coming to the common stock...wait a tick, am I talking about fundamentals? Shame on me:) We'll have to see how it plays out when this bear market rally (imo) turns south.

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