Friday, June 12, 2009

I'm Calling It!

     The top that is- and yes, I mean the Bear Market Rally! We may have a few more up days, but I am putting my credibility on the line and saying that the Dow will not hit 9000 before it hits 7000 (yes, I know it closed at 8800 today). Many have been blaring "BS" at the rally's persistance, and I have taken it upon myself to research every aspect of the climb (from the historical likelihood of a V-shaped recovery to the infusion of TARP money in which the banks have used to bid the market higher). There's definitely no sound reason to list 'what-if' scenarios that may aid in the turning of the tide, but since it's my blog, here goes nothing:

1. Failing of another Major U.S. financial institution. Keep in mind that the number of failed U.S. banks in 2008 was 25, compared to 37 already in 2009.

2. Trigger Happy Nuke Holders (ie. N. Korea, Iran, China, Russia- really, take your pick of a nuclear power that may have qualms with us).

3. Natural Disaster for which we don't have money for (another Katrina, California quaking into the sea, etc.)

4. Reality setting in and the FED not only realizing we're broke, but admiting it.

* this probably shouldn't have it's own number, but I've been thinking- if unemployment is at multi-decade highs, why does the market rally when the 'expected' number isn't met? When 600k+ more people are unemployed each month, that's 600k+ more that won't be added to that number. Eventually, we won't have any new unemployed because everyone will already be...well, you know. These are the thoughts I'm plagued with while working two full-time jobs (and yes, I feel very blessed to have work).

     Disclaimer- I am long FAZ, DOG, and short DDRX. The first two are in preparation for the collapse, and DDRX just needs to fade (like MAXY- it may take 3 months, but I believe DDRX is more than overbought at this point).

     Closing thought- I would love for our country to return to it's faith-based, non-borrowing, non-negotiating-with-terrorist roots, but it is what it is. I don't know what-all's going on in D.C., on Wall Street or at the Goldman Sachs closed door meetings, but I can tell you this: This world is not my ultimate home or final resting place. I am a Christian. I was promised by my Savior that this life wasn't going to be easy (sorry if you've been misled by 'prosperity televangelists'), but that I wouldn't have to go through it alone. Sorry for the sudden 'spiritual' overtone, but this blog is called Mission Trading for a reason. I leave for East Africa on June 27th in order to train pastors in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi (where Madonna is trying to adopt). I'm still not sure if my trading will fund missions, but it's all in His hands.

In Him,