I'm Calling It!

     The top that is- and yes, I mean the Bear Market Rally! We may have a few more up days, but I am putting my credibility on the line and saying that the Dow will not hit 9000 before it hits 7000 (yes, I know it closed at 8800 today). Many have been blaring "BS" at the rally's persistance, and I have taken it upon myself to research every aspect of the climb (from the historical likelihood of a V-shaped recovery to the infusion of TARP money in which the banks have used to bid the market higher). There's definitely no sound reason to list 'what-if' scenarios that may aid in the turning of the tide, but since it's my blog, here goes nothing:

1. Failing of another Major U.S. financial institution. Keep in mind that the number of failed U.S. banks in 2008 was 25, compared to 37 already in 2009.

*Courtesy http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

2. Trigger Happy Nuke Holders (ie. N. Korea, Iran, China, Russia- really, take your pick of a nuclear power that may have qualms with us).

3. Natural Disaster for which we don't have money for (another Katrina, California quaking into the sea, etc.)

4. Reality setting in and the FED not only realizing we're broke, but admiting it.

* this probably shouldn't have it's own number, but I've been thinking- if unemployment is at multi-decade highs, why does the market rally when the 'expected' number isn't met? When 600k+ more people are unemployed each month, that's 600k+ more that won't be added to that number. Eventually, we won't have any new unemployed because everyone will already be...well, you know. These are the thoughts I'm plagued with while working two full-time jobs (and yes, I feel very blessed to have work).

     Disclaimer- I am long FAZ, DOG, and short DDRX. The first two are in preparation for the collapse, and DDRX just needs to fade (like MAXY- it may take 3 months, but I believe DDRX is more than overbought at this point).

     Closing thought- I would love for our country to return to it's faith-based, non-borrowing, non-negotiating-with-terrorist roots, but it is what it is. I don't know what-all's going on in D.C., on Wall Street or at the Goldman Sachs closed door meetings, but I can tell you this: This world is not my ultimate home or final resting place. I am a Christian. I was promised by my Savior that this life wasn't going to be easy (sorry if you've been misled by 'prosperity televangelists'), but that I wouldn't have to go through it alone. Sorry for the sudden 'spiritual' overtone, but this blog is called Mission Trading for a reason. I leave for East Africa on June 27th in order to train pastors in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi (where Madonna is trying to adopt). I'm still not sure if my trading will fund missions, but it's all in His hands.

In Him,

Evan

Who's With Me?

Do you ever feel like you know exactly what's going to happen in a given stock, wait for price action to confirm, then do absolutely nothing?! If that doesn't consistently happen to you- you shouldn't be reading this blog (or any blogs for that matter- go kiss your supermodel wife and buy another ferrari ;). The fact is, this happens to all traders (usually after the shellshock of a losing streak- which reminds me of my last post and brings me to my next point): You're a good trader. That's right- YOU, the person reading this blog. I have a fairly accurate headcount of most of you here- and you're all traders (some very experienced). Knowing my audience, I can guarantee 3 things:

1. You know how to read a chart (maybe not expound on Fibonacci retracements, but...)
2. You have 1 or more actual trade accounts online
3. You would trade for a living if you could master your faults (psychological, emotional, etc.)

So what is the one character trait that I believe is keeping the whole lot of us from consistently profiting (and sometimes hitting the motherload on the stocks we call well before price action confirms)? DISCIPLINE. Period. The most successful trading streaks I have are the ones in which I have applied discipline. Like Pavlov's dog, the profits tell me to keep doing what I'm doing in order to experience the same reward. I am extremely confident I can take 10k and turn it into 15k in a matter of weeks- but after about 5k in profits (and it may be a much different amount for you depending on your income level) I break. Do I stop enjoying profits? No, but maybe I get bored from lack of a challenge (I know it sounds ridiculous to get bored of winning). I don't know how to overcome this cycle, but any advise would help. I don't want to be a good trader- I want to be a consistent one. That's the only knid of trader that leaves his day job (or two as the case may be)- one that has figured out how to consistently discipline himself, because he already knows how to trade!

I'm getting closer every opening bell,

Evan

ps- the stocks I knew to play today were OGXI (short when it faded if there were shares), and JVA (after the DDRX run-up, this one was next- and could keep going for days)

pps- Do any of you ever actually click on links in blogs (like if I made the words 'last post' take you to my last post)? The reason I ask is that I could write these things a bit more frequently with my schedule if I didn't think all the extra html work was worth it- you'll notice I don't have any charts or links in this one. Thanks for the input!

Dust Yourself Off

If you've been following this blog at all the last few months, you've watched me a:) Successfully profit from shorting 7 stocks in a row (when I stuck to my strategy), b:) Launch a website that focuses on my two passions: missionary work and the stock market, and c:) Completely disregard my strategy and hold on to two stocks that eventually led to a margin call, forcing me to watch my Covestor chart and $ dwindle to a negative % for the year. So what now? Being the movie buff that I am, I will explain how I plan to come back from this trading funk by rehashing a lesson from Top Gun. After Maverick, a fighter pilot for the Navy, loses his best friend in a training exercise, he finds it very difficult to fly again. He second guesses himself, is fearful, and quite frankly wants to quit. His commanding officer instructs Maverick's 'handlers' to "Get him back in the air- the sooner the better". This is the turning point of the movie, as Maverick comes back with a vengeance and achieves the success he was destined for.

There have been time constrictions lately (ie. still have two full-time jobs, planning the confirmed mission trip to East Africa, and opening another trading account), but I absolutely plan on keeping this blog alive. To bring you up to speed, in the past two weeks I've a:) Opened another Think or Swim account in which I plan to use for mission trip income (was already able to withdraw funds from successful FAZ and DDRX trades, as well as my first profitable LULU trade using put options), b:) was given a minor promotion at Target (moved from stocking to human resources- this is my morning job), and c:) Had a wonderful Mother's Day/Birthday with my entire immediate family, my brother-in-law, brother's girlfriend, and my sweetheart of five months, Michelle. Below is a great depiction of what truly matters in life:

From Left to Right: Brother and girlfriend, brother-in-law and sister, me, Michelle, Mom, Dad

Living in Exciting Times,

Evan

Three Things

1. Timothy Sykes Isn't Human.

There are traders, there are robots, and there are trading robots. Then there is Mr. Sykes. Somehow, he not only knows how to profit more than 90% of the traders out there, but he possesses a machine-like quality that seldom lets his emotions interfere with his trading plan. Perhaps this is due to the well-known lesson he learned after losing more money than some people make in a lifetime on one penny stock (It's all in his original book). He has turned a pretty surreal corner, and is now living the daytrader dream. Some people scoff at others' successes. I applaud. Now if I can only trade the perfect setups I've learned to spot from this cyborg mentor (while keeping my emotions and theories in check), I will no doubt reach that upper echelon of elite traders. I'm still coming for you Tim!

2. I've Had a Livermore Experience.

After recently watching Think or Swim liquidate some of my positions against my will (due to lack of funds and the use of margin, I had 200 shares of both LULU and PALM covered for me the last two days), I have once again regained the hope of victory. What is victory when it pertains to trading? Planning your trade and trading your plan. It's that simple. If you're wrong, fine- but don't keep having to learn the same lessons over and over because you somehow fail to allow yourself to change your trading habits. If you build a fortune, then squander it like Jesse Livermore only to build it again- Stop there! Evaluate what got you back on that plateau, and KEEP DOING THAT! In case you're interested, THIS is one of the best short biographies on the life of Jesse Livermore I have ever read.

3. I Am Planning My Next Mission Trip!

Yep- I've saved the best for last! I am finally going back to East Africa (Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Mozambique, and possibly Tanzania) this summer. I won't be alone either- my girlfriend Michelle and I will be flying over to meet a pastor friend of ours (Agatha Taylor- special lady who loves the Lord) and help train local pastors in kids ministry (Michelle's and my favorite), education, and help with various medical needs (malaria prevention, AIDS awareness, etc.). Michelle is a pharmacist, and returned recently from a mission trip to India. She truly is a woman after my own heart. Please keep the trip in your prayers and I'll try to post updates (although not too much since this site is primarily about the trading- Mission-trading.com will eventually have more about the missions).

Striving to stay focused in this break-neck-speed life,

Evan

Margin Call Averted...For Now

It just doesn't get much closer than that! I had a scheduled margin call today with Think or Swim @3pm. I was told I could either A:) add funds to bring the account to positive, B:) liquidate positions to bring the account to positive, or C:) Take market action (trade) to bring my account to positive. By holding all my positions, I essentially chose option C. If today hadn't have been the tank it turned out to be, I my friends would have been SOL (and no, that's not a ticker symbol). Behold LULU, the main reason for the margin call (and what kept me from being liquidated today):

I'll see this trade through, but what a waste of time- not to mention missed opportunities like DFR (a stock that actually meets my strategy's criteria). Do I think LULU is headed back down? Yes. Do I think my initial resistance 'guess' could end up being support (thus making it difficult to cover for a profit)? Yes. Have I learned my lesson? Which one? Um...Yes. YES!! UNCLE!

Praying for discipline,

Evan

ps- PALM was up today (lovely- can the PRE phone just come out already so people can 'sell the news'). FAZ is rocking again, now that people are realizing the banks and financial sector may still be in trouble (big surprise).

"Stress Tests are Fudge Tests", and I've Got a Margin Call

Here's the titular article- it's by Dr. Doom himself, and definitely worth a read before tomorrow's open! So I was early in my initial shortings of PALM and LULU. Wait, "strike that...reverse it" (Willy Wonka). I was not only early, but currently look like an absolute moron for not cutting my losses. My 'Bear Market Rally' convictions still hold (and growing ever stronger as this V-shape recovery pushes higher). There are few, at this point (especially in the media- big surprise), that share my sentiments. Tomorrow is key. Financials under the spotlight. The account I'm trading is at Defcon-1. My kung-fu grip is in it's last, white-knuckle effort.

Inadvertently becoming Livermore,

Evan

Here, Let Me Help You With the Long Weekend

So, if I had gone long the two stocks I shorted on Wednesday (LULU and PALM)- I'd be sittin' pretty. On the other hand, it would make it look like swing trading is easy (on nerves, trading accounts, etc.), and totally nullify the title of my last post. Instead of harping on the fact that, because of my current swing positions, I've fallen out of the top 100 Covestor rankings- I've decided to post a few items that have definitely taken my mind off of such things:

1. I signed up on Scribd in order to enter a contest, and found this gem: Why I Fired My Secretary Today

2. No need to explain this one- just watch and repeat (and you're sure to forward it to your loved ones;) Huge Dead Snake

Here's one you don't have to click on a link for:

A woman got on a bus holding a baby. The bus driver said, "That's the ugliest baby I've ever seen!"

In a huff, the woman slammed her fare into the fare box and took an aisle seat near the rear of the bus. The man seated next to her sensed that she was agitated and asked her what was wrong. "The bus driver insulted me," she fumed.

The man sympathized with her and said, "Why, he's a public servant and shouldn't say things to insult passengers."

"You're right," she said. "I think I'll go back up there and give him a piece of my mind."

"That's a good idea," the man said. "Here, let me hold your monkey."

Happy Easter!!! He Is Risen (well, technically not til tomorrow- even more technically, it happened about 2000 years ago),

Evan